Using System Dynamics to Examine Effects of Satisfaction with PV Systems, Advertising, and Competition on Energy Security and CO2 Emissions in Jordan

Abstract

With rapid technology advancements in renewable energy systems, rooftop photovoltaic (PV) products and systems can be considered a crucial element in the transition toward energy sustainability in residential buildings. Still, residents’ initiatives are required to expand the adoption of clean energy-efficient technology to replace conventional energy systems and thereby achieve a sustainable environment. The aim of this study was, therefore, to develop system dynamics models to relate adopters’ satisfaction with PV systems through word-of-mouth (WoM), advertising, and competition and then evaluate their impacts on the number of PV installations, generated electric power, and the reduction in CO2 emissions for rooftop buildings in Jordan for the years from 2020 to 2040. Results revealed that the predicted cumulative PV installations will increase to 262 and 558 MW in 2030 and 2040, respectively. Due to this, the cumulative generated power (kWh) (=42.5 GWh) will reach 452 and 964 GWh in 2030 and 2040, respectively. Moreover, the cumulative CO2 emission reductions may reach 262 and 558 million kg CO2 in 2030 and 2040, respectively. In conclusion, continual assessment of the adopters’ feedback on installed PV systems, adopting effective advertising, and advancement of PV designs and technology can significantly support achieving energy sustainability in residential buildings and reduce the dependency on traditional, scarce energy resources.