Impacts of Renewable Energy Policies on CO2 Emissions Reduction and Energy Security Using System Dynamics: The Case of Small-Scale Sector in Jordan

Abstract

Renewable energy policies, such as feed-in-tariffs (FiTs) and subsidy policies, have been reported effective in enhancing the social acceptability to install solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Nevertheless, a quantitative assessment approach is still needed to measure the extent to which these policies can achieve the clean energy goals and support the decision-making process. This study, therefore, develops system dynamics models to assess the impacts of PV policies on the social acceptability to install PV systems, energy security, and CO2 emission reduction in the small-scale sector in Jordan. Simulation was then conducted from the period 2016 to 2050. The results for the FiTs (subsidy) policies showed that the predicted accumulated PV installations, power generated, and CO2 emission reductions will reach 67.125 (88.38) Gigawatt (GW), 115.853 (152.588) Terra Wh (TWh), and 74.49 (98.114) million tons CO2, respectively. To achieve these goals, the required cumulative FiTs and subsidy policy costs are 2.2 and 7.59 billion USD, respectively. Sensitivity analyses followed to determine the optimal FiTs price and subsidy proportion that optimize PV goals under uncertainty. In conclusion, the developed models are found valuable tools for measuring the impacts of energy policies on PV goals and thereby provide great input information to the decision-making processes when selecting the appropriate energy policies and actions. In the end, adopting FiTs and/or subsidy policies, Jordan is expected to achieve a high level of clean energy security by 2050, which enhances energy capabilities and mitigates global warming. Future research will examine the factors that affect social acceptability for PV systems.