Scoping Potential Routes to UK Civil Unrest via the Food System: Results of a Structured Expert Elicitation-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Scoping Potential Routes to UK Civil Unrest via the Food System: Results of a Structured Expert Elicitation

Published:2023-10-12 Issue:20 Volume:15 Page:14783
ISSN:2071-1050
Container-title:Sustainability
language:en
Short-container-title:Sustainability

Author:

Jones Aled¹^ORCID,Bridle Sarah²^ORCID,Denby Katherine³^ORCID,Bhunnoo Riaz⁴,Morton Daniel⁵^ORCID,Stanbrough Lucy⁶,Coupe Barnaby⁷,Pilley Vanessa⁸,Benton Tim⁹,Falloon Pete¹⁰¹¹,Matthews Tom K.¹²,Hasnain Saher¹³^ORCID,Heslop-Harrison John S.¹⁴,Beard Simon¹⁵^ORCID,Pierce Julie¹⁶,Pretty Jules¹⁷^ORCID,Zurek Monika¹³^ORCID,Johnstone Alexandra¹⁸^ORCID,Smith Pete¹⁹^ORCID,Gunn Neil⁶,Watson Molly²,Pope Edward¹⁰,Tzachor Asaf¹⁵²⁰^ORCID,Douglas Caitlin¹²,Reynolds Christian²¹^ORCID,Ward Neil²²^ORCID,Fredenburgh Jez²²,Pettinger Clare²³^ORCID,Quested Tom²⁴,Cordero Juan Pablo²^ORCID,Mitchell Clive²⁵,Bewick Carrie²⁶,Brown Cameron⁶,Brown Christopher²⁷,Burgess Paul J.²⁸^ORCID,Challinor Andy²⁹,Cottrell Andrew¹⁰^ORCID,Crocker Thomas¹⁰^ORCID,George Thomas⁸,Godfray Charles J.³⁰,Hails Rosie S.³¹,Ingram John¹²^ORCID,Lang Tim²⁰,Lyon Fergus³²,Lusher Simon⁶,MacMillan Tom³³^ORCID,Newton Sue⁶,Pearson Simon³⁴^ORCID,Pritchard Sue³⁵,Sanders Dale³⁶,Sanderson Bellamy Angelina³⁷^ORCID,Steven Megan⁶,Trickett Alastair³⁸,Voysey Andrew³⁹,Watson Christine⁴⁰^ORCID,Whitby Darren¹⁶,Whiteside Kerry⁴¹

Affiliation:

1. Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge CB1 1PT, UK

2. Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5NG, UK

3. Centre for Novel Agricultural Products (CNAP), Department of Biology, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK

4. Global Food Security Programme, Polaris House, Swindon SN2 1UH, UK

5. UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UKCEH), Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK

6. WTW (Willis Towers Watson), 51 Lime Street, London EC3M 7DQ, UK

7. The Wildlife Trusts, The Kiln, Mather Road, Newark NG24 1WT, UK

8. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Nobel House, Smith Square, London SW1P 3JR, UK

9. Chatham House, 10 St James Square, London SW1Y 4LE, UK

10. Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Fitz Roy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK

11. School of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TH, UK

12. Department of Geography, King’s College London, London WC2R 2LS, UK

13. Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 4BH, UK

14. Institute for Environmental Futures, Department of Genetics and Genome Biology, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK

15. Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, UK

16. Food Standards Agency, Foss House, Kings Pool, 1–2 Peasholme Green, York Y01 7PR, UK

17. Centre for Public and Policy Engagement, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester CO4 3SQ, UK

18. The Rowett Institute, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB25 2ZD, UK

19. Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, UK

20. School of Sustainability, Reichman University, 8 Ha’Universita St., Herzliya 4610101, Israel

21. Centre for Food Policy, City, University of London, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB, UK

22. School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK

23. School of Health Professions, University of Plymouth, Plymouth PL6 8BH, UK

24. Waste & Resources Action Programme (WRAP), Blenheim Court, 19 George Street, Barnaby OC16 5BH, UK

25. NatureScot, Battleby, Redgorton, Perth PH1 3EW, UK

26. Forum for the Future, 3rd Floor, 22–26 Paul Street, London EC2A 4QE, UK

27. Sustainable Supply Chains, Asda, Asda House, Great Wilson Street, Leeds LS11 5AD, UK

28. School of Water, Energy and Environment, Cranfield University, Cranfield MK43 0AL, UK

29. School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9AT, UK

30. Oxford Martin School, Oxford University, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK

31. National Trust, Heelis, Kemble Drive, Swindon SN2 2NA, UK

32. Centre for Enterprise Environment and Development Research, Middlesex University, The Burroughs, London NW4 4BT, UK

33. Centre for Effective Innovation in Agriculture, Royal Agricultural University, Cirencester GL7 6JS, UK

34. Lincoln Institute for Agri-Food Technology, University of Lincoln, Lincoln LN6 7TS, UK

35. The Food, Farming and Countryside Commission, 1–3 Gloucester Road, Bristol BS7 8AA, UK

36. Biology Department, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK

37. School of Applied Sciences, University of the West of England (UWE), Bristol BS16 1QY, UK

38. Trickett Farming Ltd., Fortshot House Farm, Wike, Leeds LS17 9JY, UK

39. Soil Capital, 6 Putney Common, London SW15 1HL, UK

40. Scotland’s Rural College (SRUC), Peter Wilson Building, The King’s Buildings, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK

41. Samworth Brothers, 1 Samworth Way, Melton Mowbray LE13 1GA, UK

Abstract

We report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely types of potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. We take a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 people have been injured in the UK, which 40% of experts rated as “Possible (20–50%)”, “More likely than not (50–80%)” or “Very likely (>80%)” over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, this increased to 80% of experts. The experts considered two food system scenarios and ranked their plausibility of contributing to the given societal scenario. For a timescale of 10 years, the majority identified a food distribution problem as the most likely. Over a timescale of 50 years, the experts were more evenly split between the two scenarios, but over half thought the most likely route to civil unrest would be a lack of total food in the UK. However, the experts stressed that the various causes of food system disruption are interconnected and can create cascading risks, highlighting the importance of a systems approach. We encourage food system stakeholders to use these results in their risk planning and recommend future work to support prevention, preparedness, response and recovery planning.

Funder

British Academy

AFN Network+

UKRI

Met Office Food, Farming and Natural Environment Climate Service

Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme

DSIT

Transforming the UK Food System for Healthy People and a Healthy Environment SPF Programme

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment,Geography, Planning and Development,Building and Construction

Link

https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/20/14783/pdf

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