Affiliation:
1. Institute for Landscape Ecology and Resources Management (ILR) Research Centre for BioSystems Land Use and Nutrition (iFZ) Justus Liebig University Giessen Heinrich‐Buff‐Ring 26 35390 Giessen Germany
2. Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED) Lafayette CO 80026 USA
3. Department of Mechanical Engineering University of Canterbury Christchurch Canterbury 8041 New Zealand
4. Centre for International Development and Environmental Research (ZEU) Justus Liebig University Giessen Senckenbergstraße 3 35392 Giessen Germany
Abstract
AbstractModern civilization relies on a complex, globally interconnected industrial agriculture system to produce food. Its unprecedented yields hinge on external inputs like machinery, fertilizers, and pesticides, rendering it vulnerable to disruptions in production and international trade. Such a disruption could be caused by large‐scale damage to the electrical grid. Solar storms, nuclear detonations in the upper atmosphere, pandemics, or cyber‐attacks, could cause this severe damage to electrical infrastructure. To assess the impact of such a global catastrophic infrastructure loss on major food crops (corn, rice, soybean, wheat), we employ a generalized linear model. The predictions show a crop‐specific yield reduction between 15% and 37% in phase 1, the year after the catastrophe, assuming rationed use of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel stocks. In phase 2, when all stocks are depleted, yields decrease by 35%–48%. Soybean is less affected in phase 1, while all crops experience strong declines in phase 2. Europe, North and South America, and parts of India, China, and Indonesia face major yield reductions, potentially up to 75%, while most African countries are less affected. These findings underscore the necessity for preparation by highlighting the vulnerability of the food system.