Risk Assessment of Highway Infrastructure REITs Projects Based on the DEMATEL—ISM Approach

Abstract

Highway infrastructure projects financed by real estate investment trusts (REITs) have garnered significant attention due to their potential for generating stable returns. However, assessing the risks associated with such projects remains a critical challenge. This study addresses this gap by proposing a novel approach to risk assessments utilizing the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) integrated with Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM). Unlike traditional risk assessment methods, which often treat risk factors as isolated entities, the DEMATEL—ISM approach provides a comprehensive framework that reveals the direct and indirect relationships between risk factors, thus offering a systemic understanding of the interactions. The results found that falling market prices, insufficient operating revenues, and operational inefficiencies were direct influences, and high financing costs and force majeure were the fundamental influences, while other factors acted as intermediate influences. In addition, the study identifies direct and indirect relationships between different risk factors, providing a hierarchical topology of risk factors to reflect the relationships between the risk factors. The findings not only contribute to enhancing the understanding of risk dynamics in highway infrastructure REITs projects, but also offer a structured framework for risk assessment and mitigation. This research represents a significant innovation in the field of infrastructure investment risk management, offering practical implications for project planning, decision-making, and risk management strategies.