Surrogate-Based Uncertainty Analysis for Groundwater Contaminant Transport in a Chromium Residue Site Located in Southern China

Abstract

Numerical modeling is widely acknowledged as a highly precise method for understanding the dynamics of contaminant transport in groundwater. However, due to the intricate characteristics of environmental systems and the lack of accurate information, the results are susceptible to a significant degree of uncertainty. Numerical models must explicitly consider related uncertainties in parameters to facilitate robust decision-making. In a Chromium Residue Site located in southern China (the study area), this study employed Monte Carlo simulation to assess the impact of variability in key parameters uncertainty on the simulation outcomes. Variogram analysis of response surface (VARS), global sensitivity analysis, and an XGBoost (version 2.0.0)-based surrogate model was employed to overcome the substantial computational cost of Monte Carlo simulation. The results of numerical simulation indicate that the contaminant is spreading downstream towards the northern boundary of contaminated site near Lianshui River, threatening water quality. Furthermore, migration patterns are complex due to both downstream convection and upstream diffusion. Sensitivity analysis identified hydraulic conductivity, recharge rate, and porosity as the most influential model parameters, selected as key parameters. Moreover, uncertainty analysis indicated that the variability in key parameters has a minimal impact on the simulation outcomes at monitoring wells near the contaminant source. In contrast, at wells positioned a considerable distance from the contaminant source, the variability in key parameters significantly influences the simulation outcomes. The surrogate model markedly mitigated computational workload and calculation time, while demonstrating superior precision and effectively capture the non-linear correlations between input and output of the simulation model.