Runoff Responses of Various Driving Factors in a Typical Basin in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area

Abstract

Changes in land use and landscape caused by human activities, rapid socioeconomic development and climate change disturb the water cycle process and impact the runoff. This study analyzed the runoff responses to different driving factors in a typical basin in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of North China combined with methods such as geographically and temporally weighted regression, landscape pattern indexes and Budyko theory. The results indicated that the runoff and runoff depth were higher in the central and south part and were lower in the northwest of the basin. Furthermore, the average runoff increased at the later stage of the study period. Artificial surface and land use intensity exerted positive impacts on runoff and runoff depth in most areas. The complex and diverse landscape with a high shape index blocked runoff to some extent. Moreover, runoff depth would increase by 0.724 mm or decrease by 0.069 mm when the rainfall or potential evaporation increased by 1 mm. In addition, population density and the economic development in both rural as well as urban areas put a heavy burden on runoff and water resource in this basin. From above it could be concluded that the impacts on runoff due to environmental change brought by human activities could not be neglected though the runoff was also greatly affected by climate change. This study reflected the runoff responses to driving factors in a typical basin of North China, which will provide reference for water resource protection and give enlightenment to water management.