A Liquid Launch Vehicle Safety Assessment Model Based on Semi-Quantitative Interval Belief Rule Base

Abstract

As the propulsion part of a space launch vehicle and nuclear weapon missile, the health status of the liquid rocket determines whether the space launch vehicle and nuclear weapon missile can function normally. Therefore, it is of great significance to evaluate the health status of the liquid rocket. As the structure of the liquid rocket is becoming increasingly sophisticated, subjective judgment alone can no longer meet the needs of the actual system. As an expert system and a gray-box model, the belief rule base (BRB) can process both qualitative and quantitative information. The expert knowledge base is used in the safety assessment of a liquid rocket. However, in practical applications, the traditional BRB model still has two problems, which are that (1) when there are too many premise attributes, it easily leads to the explosion of combination rules, and (2) the reliability of rules is not considered in the process of model reasoning. Therefore, this paper proposes the BRB model with intervals (intervals-BRB) on the basis of traditional BRB. The interval-BRB retains the advantage of the traditional BRB, which can handle semi-quantitative information. In addition, the proposed model changes the reference point of the prerequisite attribute to the reference interval and changes the rule combination. This solves the problem of the traditional BRB explosive combination rule. The ER-rule (evidential reasoning rule) is introduced into the reasoning procedure, and the weight of the rule and the reliability of the rule are considered at the same time, which solves the shortcoming of the traditional BRB, which does not consider the reliability of the rule in reasoning. Finally, the CMAES optimization algorithm is used to optimize the initial model to obtain better performance. Finally, the model is verified by the actual data set of a liquid rocket, and the experimental results show that the model can achieve good experimental results.