A New Student Performance Prediction Method Based on Belief Rule Base with Automated Construction

Abstract

Student performance prediction (SPP) is a pivotal task in educational analytics, enabling proactive interventions and optimized resource allocation by educators. Traditional SPP models are often hindered by their complexity and lack of interpretability. This study introduces a novel SPP framework, the Belief Rule Base with automated construction (Auto–BRB), designed to address these issues. Firstly, reference values are derived through data mining techniques. The model employs an IF–THEN rule-based system integrated with evidential reasoning to ensure both transparency and interpretability. Secondly, parameter optimization is achieved using the Projected Covariance Matrix Adaptive Evolution Strategy (P–CMA–ES), significantly enhancing model accuracy. Moreover, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) is then applied to fine-tune the balance between model accuracy and complexity. Finally, case studies on SPP have shown that the Auto–BRB model has an advantage over traditional models in terms of accuracy, while maintaining good interpretability. Therefore, Auto–BRB has excellent application effects in educational data analysis.