Advances in Regression Kriging-Based Methods for Estimating Statewide Winter Weather Collisions: An Empirical Investigation

Abstract

Winter conditions create hazardous roads that municipalities work hard to maintain to ensure the safety of the travelling public. Targeting their efforts with effective network screening will help transportation managers address these problems. In our recent efforts, regression kriging was found to be a viable and effective network screening methodology. However, the study was constrained by its limited spatial extent making the reported results less conclusive and transferrable. In addition, our previous work implemented what has long been adopted in most of conventional studies—the Euclidean distance; however, use of the road network distance would, intuitively, result in further improving kriging estimates, especially when dealing with transportation problems. Therefore, this study improves upon our previous efforts by developing a more advanced kriging model; namely, network regression kriging using the entire state of Iowa with the significantly expanded road network. The transferability of the developed models is also explored to investigate its generalization potential. The findings based on various statistical measures suggest that the enhanced kriging model vastly improved the estimation performance at the cost of greater computational complexity and run times. The study also suggests that regional semivariograms better represent the true nature of the local variances, though an overall model may still function adequately if higher fidelity is not required.