Scenarios of Automated Mobility in Austria: Implications for Future Transport Policy

Abstract

Developments in the field of automated mobility will greatly change our mobility and the possibilities to get from one place to another. This paper presents different scenarios for personal mobility in Austria, anticipating the possibilities and developments in the field of automated vehicles (AVs). The scenarios were developed using a systematically formalized scenario technique and expand the social and political discourse on automated mobility, which is currently characterized by a lack of experience and visibility as an established transport service. Using system dynamics modeling techniques, i.e., the Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator (MARS), impacts of the scenarios on the Austrian transportation system are estimated. The simulations show that, without suitable transport policy measures, automated mobility will lead to a significant increase in the volume of individual traffic and to modal shift effects with lower traffic volumes for public transport, walking and cycling. In addition, without a link between AVs and post-fossil propulsion systems, increases in pollutant emissions can also be expected. In contrast, the simulation results of an increased use of AVs in public transport show positive effects for the support of a more sustainable mobility. Hence, transport policy measures accompanying the introduction and development of automated vehicles will be needed in the future to reach a sustainable development.