Dynamic Simulation of Energy Scenarios in the Transition to Sustainable Mobility in the Ecuadorian Transport Sector

Abstract

In Ecuador, the growth of the transportation sector has significantly increased greenhouse gas emissions. According to experts, this sector currently contributes to 49.8% of total greenhouse gas emissions in this country. This poses significant challenges for environmental sustainability, emphasizing the urgent need for effective strategies to mitigate these emissions and promote environmentally friendly practices. Therefore, this study focuses on developing a dynamic simulation of energy scenarios for the year 2035 in the transportation sector, with the goal of transitioning to sustainable mobility, as fossil fuels are the main pollutants in the country. This study proposes system dynamics models using VENSIM 6.0b software to estimate the total energy demand and pollutant emissions in the transportation sector. The results suggest that if Ecuador aligns with global mobility trends and implements public policies promoting the use of electric vehicles, total CO2 emissions could potentially decrease from 50,161,432 kilobarrels of oil equivalent (kBOE) to 20,589,720 kBOE by the year 2035.