Improving the Estimation of Gross Primary Productivity across Global Biomes by Modeling Light Use Efficiency through Machine Learning

Abstract

Estimating gross primary productivity (GPP) is important for simulating the subsequent carbon cycle elements and assessing the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to support the sustainable development of human society. Light use efficiency (LUE) models were widely used to estimate GPP due to their concise model structures. However, quantifying LUEmax (maximum light use efficiency) and representing the responses of photosynthesis to environmental factors are still subject to large uncertainties, which lead to substantial errors in GPP simulations. In this study, we developed a hybrid model based on machine learning and a LUE model for GPP estimates. This hybrid model was built by targeting LUE with a machine learning approach, namely multi-layer perceptron (MLP), and then, estimating GPP within a LUE model framework with the MLP-based LUE and other required inputs. We trained the hybrid LUE (H-LUE) model and then, compared it against two conventional LUE models, the vegetation photosynthesis model (VPM) and vegetation photosynthesis and respiration model (VPRM), regarding GPP estimation, using tower-based daily-scale observations from 180 flux sites that cover nine different plant function types (PFTs). The results revealed better performance (R2 = 0.86 and RMSE = 1.79 gC m−2 d−1 on the test dataset) of the H-LUE model compared to the VPM and VPRM. Evaluations of the three models under four different extreme conditions consistently revealed better performance of the H-LUE model, indicating greater adaptability of the model to varied environments in the context of climate change. Furthermore, we also found that the H-LUE model can reasonably represent the responses of the LUE to meteorological variables. Our study revealed the reliable and robust performance of the developed hybrid LUE when simulating GPP across global biomes, providing references for developing better hybrid GPP models.