Integrating Meteorological and Remote Sensing Data to Simulate Cropland Nocturnal Evapotranspiration Using Machine Learning

Abstract

Evapotranspiration (ET) represents a significant component of the global water flux cycle, yet nocturnal evapotranspiration (ETn) is often neglected, leading to underestimation of global evapotranspiration. As for cropland, accurate modeling of ETn is essential for rational water management and is important for sustainable agriculture development. We used random forest (RF) to simulate ETn at 16 globally distributed cropland eddy covariance flux sites along with remote sensing and meteorological factors. The recursive feature elimination method was used to remove unimportant variables. We also simulated the ETn of C3 and C4 crops separately. The trained RF resulted in a determination coefficient (R2) (root mean square error (RMSE)) of 0.82 (7.30 W m−2) on the testing dataset. C3 and C4 crops on the testing dataset resulted in an R2 (RMSE) of 0.86 (5.59 W m−2) and 0.55 (4.86 W m−2) for the two types of crops. We also showed that net radiation is the dominant factor in regulating ETn, followed by 2 m horizontal wind speed and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and these three meteorological factors showed a significant positive correlation with ETn. This research demonstrates that RF can simulate ETn from crops economically and accurately, providing a methodological basis for improving global ETn simulations.