Mapping Forest Fire Risk and Development of Early Warning System for NW Vietnam Using AHP and MCA/GIS Methods

Abstract

Forest fires constitute a major environmental problem in tropical countries, especially in the context of climate change and increasing human populations. This paper aims to identify the causes of frequent forest fires in Son La Province, a fire-prone and forested mountainous region in northwest Vietnam, with a view to constructing a forest fire-related database with multiple layers of natural, social and economic information, extracted largely on the basis of Landsat 7 images. The assessment followed an expert systems approach, applying multi-criteria analysis (MCA) with an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the weights of the individual parameters related to forest fires. A multi-indicator function with nine parameters was constructed to establish a forest fire risk map at a scale of 1:100,000 for use at the provincial level. The results were verified through regression analysis, yielding R2 = 0.86. A real-time early warning system for forest fire areas has been developed for practical use by the relevant government authorities to provide more effective forest fire prevention planning for Son La Province.