A Study on the Impact of External Shocks on the Resilience of China’s Grain Supply Chain

Abstract

Grain supply is the lifeblood of a country, and the stability of the supply chain is a crucial prerequisite for ensuring national grain security. This paper draws on the definition of resilience in physics and economics. It takes supply chain fracture resilience, impact resilience, and synergy resilience as the secondary indicators. It constructs a comprehensive evaluation indicator system of the grain supply chain resilience, measures the resilience indicator of China’s grain supply chain from 1996 to 2021, and analyzes the role of supply, cost, exchange rate, and other external shocks in influencing the resilience of China’s grain supply chain on this basis. The study found that the overall level of China’s total grain supply chain resilience has been growing year by year and can be divided into three stages: low-level stabilization stage, continuous growth stage, and high-level stabilization stage. Grain supply chain fracture resilience has been growing steadily, grain supply chain impact resilience fluctuation is more obvious, and grain supply chain synergy resilience has been changing more gently. In the inquiry of the impact of external shocks on the resilience of China’s grain supply chain, it was found that world grain exports and the RMB exchange rate have a significant positive impact on China’s grain supply chain resilience level, while the international oil price has a significant negative impact. Based on this, the paper puts forward suggestions for ensuring stable production and supply in the grain market, improving the structure of foreign trade in grain, and actively coping with international commodity price shocks.