Estimation and Prediction of Industrial VOC Emissions in Hebei Province, China

Abstract

The study of industrial volatile organic compound (VOC) emission inventories is essential for identifying VOC emission levels and distribution. This paper established an industrial VOC emission inventory in 2015 for Hebei Province and completed an emission projection for the period 2020–2030. The results indicated that the total emissions of industrial VOCs in 2015 were 1017.79 kt. The use of VOC products accounted for more than half of the total. In addition, the spatial distribution characteristics of the industrial VOC emissions were determined using a geographic information statistics system (GIS), which showed that the VOCs were mainly distributed the central and southern regions of Hebei. Considering the future economic development trends, population changes, related environmental laws and regulations, and pollution control technology, three scenarios were defined for forecasting the industrial VOC emissions in future years. This demonstrated that industrial VOC emissions in Hebei would amount to 1448.94 kt and 2203.66 kt in 2020 and 2030, with growth rates of 42.36% and 116.51% compared with 2015, respectively. If all industrial enterprises took the control measures, the VOC emissions could be reduced by 69% in 2030. The analysis of the scenarios found that the most effective action plan was to take the best available control technologies and clean production in key industries, including the chemical medicine, coke production, mechanical equipment manufacturing, organic chemical, packaging and printing, wood adhesive, industrial and construction dye, furniture manufacturing, transportation equipment manufacturing, and crude oil processing industries.