Clearing the Air: Assessing the Effectiveness of Emission Policy in Qinhuangdao’s Key Industries

Abstract

China has successively put forward ultra-low emission (ULE) transformation plans to reduce the air pollutant emissions of industrial pollutants since 2014. To assess the benefits of the ULE policy on regional air quality for Qinhuangdao, this study developed an emission inventory of nine atmospheric pollutants in 2016 and evaluated the effectiveness of the emission policy in Qinhuangdao’s key industries under different scenarios with an air quality model (CALPUFF). The emissions of air pollutants in 2016 were as follows: Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emitted 48.91 kt/year, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emitted 86.83 kt/year, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted 52.69 kt/year, particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) emitted 302.01 and 116.85 kt/year, carbon monoxide (CO) emitted 1208.80 kt/year, ammonia (NH3) emitted 62.87 kt/year, black carbon (BC) emitted 3.79 kt/year, and organic carbon (OC) emitted 2.72 kt/year, respectively. The results showed that at the regional level in 2025, the iron and steel industry under the PPC (Peak Production Capacity) scenario had the highest potential for reducing SO2 and NOx emissions, while the cement industry under the PPC scenario excelled in reducing PM10 emissions. As for the industrial level in 2025, the flat glass industry under the ULE scenario would reduce the most SO2 emitted, while the iron and steel industry and the cement industry under the PPC scenario demonstrated the best reduction in NOx and PM10 emissions, respectively. Furthermore, the average annual contribution concentration of SO2, NOx, and PM10 in the air monitoring stations of Qinhuangdao under the PPC scenario was significantly lower than that under the BAU scenario revealed by air quality simulation. It can be concluded that the emission policy in Qinhuangdao will help improve the air quality. This study can provide scientific support for policymakers to implement the ULE policy in industrial undeveloped cities and tourist cities such as Qinhuangdao in the future.