Documented and Simulated Warm Extremes during the Last 600 Years over Monsoonal China

Abstract

In this study, we present an analysis of warm extremes over monsoonal China (21–45° N, 106–124° E) during the last 600 years based on Chinese historical documents and simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The Chinese historical documents indicate that extreme warm records become more frequent after ~1650 CE in North China and ~1850 CE in the Yangtze River Valley. Our analyses of two threshold extreme temperature indices also illustrate that warm extremes have become more frequent since the 17th century in North China and the mid-19th century in Yangtze River Valley in good agreement with the changes in warm extremes revealed in the historical documents. This agreement suggests potential mechanisms behind the shift of periods, which should be further investigated in the future.