Spatio-temporal variations of the major meteorological disasters and its response to climate change in Henan Province during the past two millennia

Abstract

In China, historical documents have recorded large quantities of information related to natural disasters, and these disasters have had long-lasting effects on economic and social activities. Understanding the occurrence of the natural disasters and their spatio-temporal variation characters is crucial for sustainable of our society. Therefore, based on the collection and collation of historical documents, and adopting mathematical statistics, Kriging interpolation, correlation analysis and other methods, we systematically explored the meteorological disasters in Henan Province during the past two millennia in analyzing their spatio-temporal distribution characters and driving forces. The results demonstrate that there were five major types of meteorological disasters in Henan Province, including drought, flood, hails, low temperature and frost and insect pests, which presented obvious spatio-temporal variations and have occurred frequently during the past two millennia. According to the historical documents, the major meteorological disasters occurred 1,929 times in Henan from 221 BCE to 2000 CE. On the whole, the disaster frequency show that the occurrence cycle of the meteorological disasters has obvious changes, which mainly occurred in the middle and late stages during the past two millennia, especially after 1300 CE. Furthermore, we also find that the variation of meteorological disaster events is consistent with the variation of temperature in eastern China and the frequency of meteorological disaster increases in the cold period, but decreases in the warm period. In addition, there are obvious differences in the spatial distribution of the major meteorological disaster, which were mainly distributed in the northwest and southern part region of the Henan Province before 1911 CE. While after 1911 CE, the northern and southeastern parts were the meteorological disaster-prone areas in this region during this period. Spatial correlation analysis of each meteorological disaster before and after 1911 CE points out the droughts disaster frequency-occurring district has transferred in different periods, while the hail and low temperature and frost disasters just have a smaller transferred during these two periods. Conversely, the frequency-occurring districts of floods and insect pest disasters have no obviously transferred in different periods. These results can provide an important scientific basis for governmental decision makers and local people to prevent and mitigate meteorological disaster in the future.