The Relationship between Export and Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Turkish Sectors

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the impact of sectoral exports on economic growth in Turkey over the period 2000–2015. To this end, empirical models are estimated using panel data techniques in which quarterly data are gathered for eight sectors. Findings in the case of the pooled panel indicate the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis. Disaggregated evidences, on the other hand, reveal the validity of export-led growth hypothesis in the case of (i) agriculture and forestry; (ii) fishing; (iii) mining and quarrying; (iv) manufacturing; (v) electricity, gas and water supply; and (vi) wholesale and retail trade while it is found to be invalid in the case of (i) real estate, renting and business activities; and (ii) other community, social and personal service activities. The sectors that have the highest growth contributions are listed as follows: (i) agriculture and forestry; (ii) mining and quarrying; and (iii) manufacturing. Causality results also provide a strong support in favor of an export-led growth hypothesis for four sectors in addition to the feedback hypothesis which is valid for three sectors.