Impact of Inflation in Different States of Unemployment: Evidence with the Phillips Curve in South Africa from 2008 to 2022

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of inflation in different states of unemployment: evidence with the Phillips curve in South Africa. The contribution of this paper is to examine the impact of inflation on different states of unemployment in South Africa. The Paper employs Markov-switching dynamic regression and data from 2008 to 2022. It was found that there are 2 states of unemployment mean rates of 25.55% and 33.59%, expected to run for 67 and 7 quarters, respectively. There is a 98.51% and 86.99% chance of a move and then returning to the same state, respectively. In states 1 and 2, a 1% increase in inflation results in a 2.61% increase and a 0.06% decrease in unemployment, respectively. There are times when the Phillips curve rationale is not holding. The government needs to increase the channels of employment opportunities. There is a need to re-look at the trade-offs between inflation and unemployment in the economy.