Abstract
Agricultural industry plays a significant role in the South African economy, specifically in creating jobs. However, this sector is facing significant challenges owing to economic and social unrest. Within the application of both Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) on time series data from 2010q1 to 2021q4; this paper assessed the effects of food imports, inflation, and real wage on agricultural employment in South Africa. The results from bounds testing indicated that food imports, inflation and real wage stimulate longterm disruptions in agricultural employment. However, short-run results indicated that agricultural employment is only affected by the real wage. Based on these findings, this study suggests a policy that incorporation of both inflation rate and real wages policy to improve employment in the agricultural industry. Additionally, easing the import of food products that are complements to domestic agricultural products should be another strategy to increase the number of people employed in the agricultural industry.
Publisher
Balkan Scientific Association of Agricultural Economists
Reference28 articles.
1. Al-zeaud, H., & Al-hosban, S. (2015). Does the Phillips curve exist? An empirical evidence from Jordan. European Scientific Journal, 11(10), 253 – 275.
2. Arnoldi, M. (2021). Agriculture remains a star performer in the economy, but still needs govt support. Retrieved May 28, 2022, from https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/agriculture-remains-a-star-performer-in-the-economy-but-stillneeds-govt-support-2021-06-03
3. Buthelezi, E. M. (2023). Impact of Inflation in Different States of Unemployment: Evidence with the Phillips Curve in South Africa from 2008 to 2022. Economies, 11(1), 1 – 12.
4. Daya, Y., Ranoto, T.R., & Letsoalo, M.A. (2006). Intra-Africa Agricultural Trade: A South African Perspective. Pretoria: Department of Agriculture.
5. Egede, Y., Aminu, U., Hamma, A., & Ademola-John, C. I. (2023). Revisiting the Validity of Phillips Curve in Nigeria: An ARDL Approach. Management and Economics Review, 8(1), 24-34.