Linking Ecosystem Services to Land Use Decisions: Policy Analyses, Multi-Scenarios, and Integrated Modelling

Abstract

Rapid industrialization and urbanization have brought dramatic changes to land use structure and layout but have caused several negative impacts on the ecosystem and environment. Increasing the supply of ecosystem services (ESs) in important ecological regions through land use optimization is one strategy that must be seriously considered in land use planning. However, existing land use optimization primarily focuses on economic outcomes, and is difficult to adapt to the practical needs of ecological civilization construction in China. Therefore, we formulated a framework that links ESs to land use decisions by combining policy analyses, multi-scenarios and integrated modelling. The paper is organized into three main parts. First, we conduct a systematic literature review to land use change (LUCC), ESs, and their relationship. Next, we build on insights from the literature review to develop a conceptual framework that integrates ESs into land use optimization. The framework includes a quantitative analysis and spatial allocation of land use. For the quantitative analysis, in addition to considering the development trends, we set ESs to achieve national requirements. Then, an optimized scenario targeted at the maximum ecosystem service value was built. For the spatial allocation, we combined multi-layer perception (MLP) and cellular automaton (CA) and developed an MLP-CA model independently. Last, an empirical study of the proposed framework was implemented in Puge County, China. Our results provide a new technical tool for the layout of optimal land use under the constraint of ecological protection policies and provides a way to address trade-offs between ecological, social, and economic values.