Application of a Multi-Layer Perceptron and Markov Chain Analysis-Based Hybrid Approach for Predicting and Monitoring LULCC Patterns Using Random Forest Classification in Jhelum District, Punjab, Pakistan

Abstract

Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) is a critical environmental issue that has significant effects on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and climate change. This study examines the land-use and land-cover (LULC) spatiotemporal dynamics across a three-decade period (1998–2023) in a district area. In order to forecast the LULCC patterns, this study suggests a hybrid strategy that combines the random forest method with multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and Markov chain analysis. To predict the dynamics of LULC changes for the year 2035, a hybrid technique based on multi-layer perceptron and Markov chain model analysis (MLP-MCA) was employed. The area of developed land has increased significantly, while the amount of bare land, vegetation, and forest cover have all decreased. This is because the principal land types have changed due to population growth and economic expansion. This study also discovered that between 1998 and 2023, the built-up area increased by 468 km2 as a result of the replacement of natural resources. It is estimated that 25.04% of the study area’s urbanization will increase by 2035. The performance of the model was confirmed with an overall accuracy of 90% and a kappa coefficient of around 0.89. It is important to use advanced predictive models to guide sustainable urban development strategies. The model provides valuable insights for policymakers, land managers, and researchers to support sustainable land-use planning, conservation efforts, and climate change mitigation strategies.