Open Source Data-Based Solutions for Identifying Patterns of Urban Earthquake Systemic Vulnerability in High-Seismicity Areas

Abstract

Urban settlements located in high-seismicity areas should benefit from comprehensive vulnerability analyses, which are essential for the proper implementation of vulnerability modelling actions. Alas, many developing countries face a shortage of knowledge on seismic vulnerability, particularly concerning its systemic component, as a consequence of a combination of data scarcity and a lack of interest from authorities. This paper aims to identify primary time-independent spatial patterns of earthquake systemic vulnerability based on the accessibility of key emergency management facilities (e.g., medical units, fire stations), focusing on the urban settlements located in the high-seismicity area nearby the Vrancea Seismogenic Zone in Romania. The proposed methodological framework relies on open source data extracted from OpenStreetMap, which are processed via GIS techniques and tools (i.e., Network Analyst, Weighted Overlay Analysis), to compute the service areas of emergency management centres, and to map earthquake systemic vulnerability levels. The analysis shows that accessibility and systemic vulnerability patterns are significantly impacted by a synergy of factors deeply rooted in the urban spatial layout. Although the overall accessibility was estimated to be medium-high, and the overall systemic vulnerability to be low-medium, higher systemic vulnerability levels in certain cities (e.g., Bacău, Onești, Tecuci, Urziceni). The presented findings have multi-scalar utility: they aid in the development of improved, locally tailored seismic vulnerability reduction plans, as well as the allocation of financial and human resources required to manage earthquake-induced crises at regional scale. Further to that, the paper provides a transparent methodological framework that can be replicated to put cities in high-seismicity areas on the map of systemic vulnerability assessments, laying the groundwork for positive change in countries where the challenges associated with high-level seismic risk are often overlooked.