COVID-19 Pandemic: Escape of Pathogenic Variants and MHC Evolution

Abstract

We propose a new hypothesis that explains the maintenance and evolution of MHC polymorphism. It is based on two phenomena: the constitution of the repertoire of naive T lymphocytes and the evolution of the pathogen and its impact on the immune memory of T lymphocytes. Concerning the latter, pathogen evolution will have a different impact on reinfection depending on the MHC allomorph. If a mutation occurs in a given region, in the case of MHC allotypes, which do not recognize the peptide in this region, the mutation will have no impact on the memory repertoire. In the case where the MHC allomorph binds to the ancestral peptides and not to the mutated peptide, that individual will have a higher chance of being reinfected. This difference in fitness will lead to a variation of the allele frequency in the next generation. Data from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic already support a significant part of this hypothesis and following up on these data may enable it to be confirmed. This hypothesis could explain why some individuals after vaccination respond less well than others to variants and leads to predict the probability of reinfection after a first infection depending upon the variant and the HLA allomorph.