Complementarity and ‘Resource Droughts’ of Solar and Wind Energy in Poland: An ERA5-Based Analysis

Abstract

In recent years, Poland has experienced a significant increase in the installed capacity of solar and wind power plants. Renewables are gaining increasing interest not only because of Poland’s obligations to European Union policies, but also because they are becoming cheaper. Wind and solar energy are fairly-well investigated technologies in Poland and new reports are quite frequently added to the existing research works documenting their potential and the issues related to their use. In this article, we analyze the spatial and temporal behavior of solar and wind resources based on reanalysis datasets from ERA5. This reanalysis has been selected because it has appropriate spatial and temporal resolution and fits the field measurements well. The presented analysis focuses only on the availability of energy potential/resources, so characteristics intrinsic to energy conversion (like wind turbine power curve) were not considered. The analysis considered the last 40 years (1980–2019) of available data. The Spearman coefficient of correlation was considered as a complementarity metric, and the Mann–Kendal test was used to assess the statistical significance of trends. The results revealed that: The temporal complementarity between solar and wind resources exists mostly on a seasonal scale and is almost negligible for daily and hourly observations. Moreover, solar and wind resources in joint operation exhibit a smoother availability pattern (assessed based on coefficient of variation). Further findings show that the probability of ‘resource droughts’ (periods when cumulative generation was less than arbitrary threshold) lasting one day is 11.5% for solar resources, 21.3% for wind resources and only 6.2% if both resources are considered in a joint resource evaluation. This situation strongly favors the growth of local hybrid systems, as their combined power output would exhibit lower variability and intermittency, thus decreasing storage demand and/or smoothing power system operation.