Analysis of the Potential for Gas Micro-Cogeneration Development in Poland Using the Monte Carlo Method

Abstract

Micro-cogeneration (mCHP) is a promising solution for the generation of heat and electricity in households, it contributes to reducing carbon dioxide emissions in countries where the production of electricity is mainly based on fossil fuels. Its dissemination in Poland faces barriers in the form of high purchase prices in relation to electricity productivity. In this work 1% of the household population in Poland was analyzed using the Monte Carlo method. It was found that for mCHP to become economically profitable for a group of at least 10,000 households, its price should fall from around 18,000 euros (711.5 euros/kWth and 18,000 euros/kWe) to 4800 euros (189.7 euros/kWth and 4800 euros/kWe) and for 100,000 households to 4100 euros (162.1 euros/kWth and 4100 euros/kWe). These calculations were made for fixed gas and electricity prices. The analysis also included cases of various changes in gas and energy prices. Faster growth of electricity prices than gas prices reduce the profitability barrier. In addition, a building located in Lesser Poland region was analyzed, with an above average demand for electricity and heat. Gas micro-cogeneration becomes profitable for this household at a price of 3700 euros (146.2 euros/kWth and 3700 euros/kWe) at fixed gas and electricity prices.