Characteristics of Runoff Variations and Attribution Analysis in the Poyang Lake Basin over the Past 55 Years

Abstract

Spatial and temporal variations in hydrological series are affected by both climate change and human activities. A scientific understanding of the impacts of these two main factors on runoff will help to understand the response mechanism of the water cycle in a changing environment. This study focused on Poyang Lake Basin, which contains China’s largest freshwater lake. Several approaches, including the Mann-Kendall trend test, cumulative anomaly method, Hurst exponent analysis, and slope change ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ) method, were adopted to explore the characteristics of runoff variations and the respective impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff variations in the five subbasins. The results indicated that (1) from 1961 to 2015, the runoff throughout the basin fluctuated, and it decreased significantly in the 2000s. (2) Different baseline periods and measurement periods were identified for each subbasin to analyse the spatial and temporal responses of runoff to climate change and human activities. (3) The runoff of each subbasin will exhibit anti-persistent features with different persistence times in the future. (4) Compared with those in the baseline period, in the first measurement period, precipitation was the main factor driving the runoff increase in the Ganjiang, Fuhe, Xinjiang and Raohe subbasins, with contribution rates of 50.91–63.47%, and human activities played a supplementary role. However, in the second measurement period, as human activities intensified, they became the leading factor causing changes in runoff, with contribution rates between 59.57% and 92.49%. Considering water shortages and the intensification of human activities, the impacts of human activities on runoff variations will require more attention in the future.