Spatially Explicit Assessment of Suitable Conditions for the Sustainable Production of Aviation Fuels in Brazil

Abstract

International civil aviation strives to significantly reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) is an alternative for such purpose. However, for an alternative fuel to be considered SAF, some conditions must be met, and production must be certified for sustainability. This paper presents an assessment of the necessary conditions for the sustainable production of these biofuels in Brazil. It is based on a geospatial publicly available database (SAFmaps) that was built with the aim of providing information to stakeholders who would be interested in the production of SAF. The geographic scope corresponds to an area that is about half of the country. The case studies reported in this paper are related to four crop-based feedstocks (eucalyptus, soybean, sugarcane, and corn), which could be used for SAF production, according to three certified routes (FT, HEFA, and ATJ) (Fischer–Tropsch, Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids and Alcohol to Jet); in total, six potential production sites were assessed. For each crop, the detailed assessment is based on estimates of suitability for biomass production, yields, and costs. The assumptions made allowed us to explicitly analyse the risk of deforestation (production could only occur with displacement of pastures) and the necessary preservation of sensitive biomes and of legally protected areas, in addition to observing the restrictive conditions imposed by CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation). To reduce GHG emissions, transporting biomass over long distances was assumed to be only by rail or pipeline. In addition, we address alternatives to minimise the risks associated with induced land-use change (iLUC) and to reduce impacts on the landscape. The results show that the production of SAF through the ATJ route, using ethanol produced from sugarcane and corn, requires less land. Economic assessment was outside the scope of this paper.