Risk Assessment of Urban Rainstorm Disaster Based on Multi-Layer Weighted Principal Component Analysis: A Case Study of Nanjing, China

Abstract

Nanjing city is taken as a case in this urban rainstorm disaster risk research. Using the data of meteorology and social-economy statistics of Nanjing area, the paper selected ten indicators to establish the risk assessment system of urban rainstorm disaster from the aspects of the vulnerability of hazard-affected body, the fragility of disaster-pregnant environment, and the danger of hazard factors. Multi-layer weighted principal component analysis (MLWPCA) is an extension of the principal component analysis (PCA). The MLWPCA is based on factor analysis for the division subsystem. Then the PCA is used to analyze the indicators in each subsystem and weighted to synthesize. ArcGIS is used to describe regional differences in the urban rainstorm disaster risk. Results show that the MLWPCA is more targeted and discriminatory than principal component analysis in the risk assessment of urban rainstorm disaster. Hazard-affected body and disaster-pregnant environment have greater impacts on the risk assessment of rainstorm disaster in Nanjing, but the influence of hazard factors is few. Spatially, there is a large gap in the rainstorm disaster risk in Nanjing. The areas with high-risk rainstorm disaster are mainly concentrated in the central part of Nanjing, and the areas with low-risk rainstorm disaster are in the south and north of the city.