Flood Risk Assessment to Enable Improved Decision-Making for Climate Change Adaptation Strategies by Central and Local Governments

Abstract

This study assessed the flood risk in the Republic of Korea, considering representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios, after applying the concept of “risk” as proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For the hazard assessment, hazard indicators were constructed utilizing design rainfall standards, which represented the local flood protection capability, as a flood threshold. We constructed high-resolution spatial images from data of buildings, roads, agriculture areas, and the population that have suffered significant flood damage in the Republic of Korea. We also calculated flood exposure levels by analyzing the scales of the targets in low-lying areas. Environmental and anthropogenic conditions that can directly increase or decrease river flooding and urban flooding were set as indicators and utilized as proxy variables. As a result of the risk assessment, we found 43 risk areas in the historical period, accounting for 19% of the total administrative districts, 42 in the projected period under RCP 4.5 (18%), and 51 in the projected period under RCP 8.5 (22%). This study’s results can be utilized by the central government to determine flood risk priority areas in various administrative districts and by the local government to select priority areas to install flood reduction facilities.