Roadside Air Quality Forecasting in Shanghai with a Novel Sequence-to-Sequence Model

Abstract

The establishment of an effective roadside air quality forecasting model provides important information for proper traffic management to mitigate severe pollution, and for alerting resident’s outdoor plans to minimize exposure. Current deterministic models rely on numerical simulation and the tuning of parameters, and empirical models present powerful learning ability but have not fully considered the temporal periodicity of air pollutants. In order to take the periodicity of pollutants into empirical air quality forecasting models, this study evaluates the temporal variations of air pollutants and develops a novel sequence to sequence model with weekly periodicity to forecast air quality. Two-year observation data from Shanghai roadside air quality monitoring stations are employed to support analyzing and modeling. The results conclude that the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations show obvious daily and weekly variations, and the temporal patterns are nearly consistent with the periodicity of traffic flow in Shanghai. Compared with PM2.5, the CO concentrations are more affected by traffic variation. The proposed model outperforms the baseline model in terms of accuracy, and presents a higher linear consistency in PM2.5 prediction and lower errors in CO prediction. This study could assist environmental researchers to further improve the technologies for urban air quality forecasting, and serve as tools for supporting policymakers to implement related traffic management and emission control policies.