Distribution and Conservation of Plants in the Northeastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau under Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change is causing unprecedented alterations in the spatial pattern of global biodiversity, imposing severe challenges for biodiversity conservation. In particular, alpine biomes are sensitive to a variety of environmental changes. Therefore, understanding the distribution and conservation of alpine plant biodiversity is vital. In this study, we used species distribution modeling and 20,650 high-resolution occurrence coordinates of 1224 plant species to evaluate the potential distribution of plants in the northeastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (Qinghai Province, China) under different future climate scenarios, through an integrative analysis of species distribution probabilities, species richness, and priority conservation areas. Under current and future climate scenarios, the plant species are predicted to be mainly distributed in eastern and southern Qinghai Province, with the suitable conditions for plant species gradually extending from the southeast to the northwest of Qinghai Province under the effects of climate change. The priority conservation areas in Qinghai national nature reserves are predicted to expand, with this expansion being greater for herbaceous plants than woody plants, under future climate scenarios. However, the priority conservation areas outside nature reserves in Qinghai Province remain approximately three times larger than those inside nature reserves. Thus, there were great differences between the existing nature reserve area and the priority conservation areas, with nature reserves insufficiently covering priority conservation areas in Qinghai Province. Therefore, the original nature reserve areas should be expanded, according to the predicted plant habitat hotspots in Qinghai Province. Our research provides valuable information for biodiversity protection in the northeastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, reasonable strategies for addressing the future protection challenges associated with climate pressure, and new insights for improving nature reserves in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.