Affiliation:
1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2. School of Mathematics and Computational Science, Key Laboratory of Intelligent Control Technology for Wuling-Mountain Ecological Agriculture in Hunan Province, Huaihua University, Huaihua 418008, China
Abstract
Water conservation is an essential parameter for maintaining the ecological balance. The Three-River Source Region (TRSR) cannot be an exception, since it is one of the most influential water conservation reserves in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau in China. Therefore, the realization of its scientific significance can determine its future regional sustainable development and the optimal allocation of water resources. The study of the past is critical to predict the future temporal and spatial changes in the water conservation of the TRSR. The first task of this study was to obtain the optimal runoff simulations in the TRSR from 1981 to 2014 by calibrating the adjustable the parameters of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Then, the water conservation of the TRSR from 1981 to 2014 was quantified. Finally, the future water conservation of the TRSR was also predicted using the optimal SWAT model. The predication took into consideration the three terms including the near-term (2015–2044), mid-term (2045–2074), and long-term (2075–2099) in three different climate scenarios of SSP1-1.9 (SSP119), SSP2-4.5 (SSP245), and SSP5-8.5 (SSP585). The main findings are as follows: (1) both the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) for runoff simulation on the three sub-basins reached above 0.78 during the calibration and validation periods, which indicates the reasonableness of the SWAT model in the TRSR. (2) From 1981 to 2014, the water conservation capacity of the TRSR showed an increasing trend (0.5135 mm/year), and its changes had significant positive correlations with precipitation and temperature. The Yellow River Source (YR) and the Yangtze River Source (YZ) had the strongest and weakest water conservation capacities, respectively. (3) From 2015 to 2099, the water conservation in the TRSR in the SSP119, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios decreased first and then increased, increased first and then decreased, and increased steadily, respectively.
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