Driving Factors of NOx Emissions in China: Insights from Spatial Regression Analysis

Abstract

China’s rapid industrialization and urbanization have led to significant nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, contributing to severe atmospheric pollution. Understanding the driving factors behind these emissions is crucial for effective pollution control and environmental management. Therefore, this study is an attempt to provide insights into the influence of socioeconomic factors and explore spatial dependencies of NOx emissions in China in 2022 employing spatial regression models (SRMs). Among the SRMs considered, the spatial Durbin model (SDM) is identified as the most suitable for analyzing regional NOx emissions. The study highlights the importance of controlling electricity consumption and vehicle emissions for addressing air pollution in Chinese regions. Specifically, a one billion kilowatt-hour increase in electricity consumption leads to approximately 549.6 tons of NOx emissions, and an increase of 1000 vehicles in a region results in an average increase of 7113.4 tons of NOx emissions in the same region. Furthermore, per capita consumption expenditure (PCEXP) and research and development (R&D) expenditure exhibit negative direct and spillover impacts. Contrary to previous studies, this research finds that changes in urban population density do not have a significant direct or indirect effect on NOx emissions within the studied areas. Moreover, we conducted additional investigations to assess the effectiveness of government action plans in reducing NOx emissions. Specifically, we evaluated the impact of Phases 1 and 2 of the Clean Air Action Plan, launched in 2013 and 2018, respectively, on the socioeconomic drivers of NOx emissions. Therefore, the data were modeled for the years 2013 and 2017 and compared to the results obtained for 2022. The findings indicate that over the entire period (2013–2022), the emission controls mandated by the action plan resulted in significant reductions in the impact of many of the studied NOx drivers. In conclusion, based on the results, this study presents recommendations to mitigate NOx emissions.