Teleconnections of Atmospheric Circulations to Meteorological Drought in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin

Abstract

The Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB) is one of the major transboundary basins globally, facing ongoing challenges due to flood and drought disasters. Particularly in the past two decades, the basin has experienced an increased frequency of meteorological drought events, posing serious threats to the local socio-economic structures and ecological systems. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the meteorological drought characteristics in the LMRB and identify the impact and correlation of atmospheric circulation on the meteorological drought in the basin. Specifically, the different levels of meteorological drought events were defined using the Run Theory based on the seasonal and annual SPEI from 1980 to 2018. The time lag correlation between meteorological drought events and the EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), were analyzed in the LMRB. Our results indicated that, from a temporal perspective, the period from November to April of the following year was particularly prone to meteorological droughts in the basin. In terms of spatial distribution, the primary agricultural regions within the basin, including Thailand, Eastern Cambodia, and Vietnam, were highly susceptible to meteorological droughts. Further analysis revealed a teleconnection between drought events in the LMRB and atmospheric circulation factors. The sensitivity of the basin’s drought timing to its response decreased in the order of the ENSO > AO > NAO > PDO. In general, the ENSO had the most substantial influence on drought events in the basin, with the strongest response relationship, while the upper reaches of the basin displayed the most significant response to the AO; the occurrence and progression of meteorological droughts in this area synchronized with the AO. These findings enhance our understanding of drought-prone areas in the LMRB, including the meteorological factors and driving mechanisms involved. This information is valuable for effectively mitigating and managing drought risks in the region.