Ross–Weddell Dipole Critical for Antarctic Sea Ice Predictability in MPI–ESM–HR

Abstract

We use hindcasts from a state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction system initialized between 1979 and 2017 to explore the predictability of the Antarctic dipole—that is, the seesaw between sea ice cover in the Weddell and Ross Seas, and discuss its implications for Antarctic sea ice predictability. Our results indicate low forecast skills for the Antarctic dipole in the first hindcast year, with a strong relaxation of March values toward the climatology contrasting with an overestimation of anomalies in September, which we interpret as being linked to a predominance of local drift processes over initialized large-scale dynamics. Forecast skills for the Antarctic dipole and total Antarctic sea ice extent are uncorrelated. Limited predictability of the Antarctic dipole is also found under preconditioning around strong warm and strong cold events of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Initialization timing and model drift are reported as potential explanations for the poor predictive skills identified.