A Hybrid System of Braden Scale and Machine Learning to Predict Hospital-Acquired Pressure Injuries (Bedsores): A Retrospective Observational Cohort Study

Abstract

Background: The Braden Scale is commonly used to determine Hospital-Acquired Pressure Injuries (HAPI). However, the volume of patients who are identified as being at risk stretches already limited resources, and caregivers are limited by the number of factors that can reasonably assess during patient care. In the last decade, machine learning techniques have been used to predict HAPI by utilizing related risk factors. Nevertheless, none of these studies consider the change in patient status from admission until discharge. Objectives: To develop an integrated system of Braden and machine learning to predict HAPI and assist with resource allocation for early interventions. The proposed approach captures the change in patients’ risk by assessing factors three times across hospitalization. Design: Retrospective observational cohort study. Setting(s): This research was conducted at ChristianaCare hospital in Delaware, United States. Participants: Patients discharged between May 2020 and February 2022. Patients with HAPI were identified from Nursing documents (N = 15,889). Methods: Support Vector Machine (SVM) was adopted to predict patients’ risk for developing HAPI using multiple risk factors in addition to Braden. Multiple performance metrics were used to compare the results of the integrated system versus Braden alone. Results: The HAPI rate is 3%. The integrated system achieved better sensitivity (74.29 ± 1.23) and detection prevalence (24.27 ± 0.16) than the Braden scale alone (sensitivity (66.90 ± 4.66) and detection prevalence (41.96 ± 1.35)). The most important risk factors to predict HAPI were Braden sub-factors, overall Braden, visiting ICU during hospitalization, and Glasgow coma score. Conclusions: The integrated system which combines SVM with Braden offers better performance than Braden and reduces the number of patients identified as at-risk. Furthermore, it allows for better allocation of resources to high-risk patients. It will result in cost savings and better utilization of resources. Relevance to clinical practice: The developed model provides an automated system to predict HAPI patients in real time and allows for ongoing intervention for patients identified as at-risk. Moreover, the integrated system is used to determine the number of nurses needed for early interventions. Reporting Method: EQUATOR guidelines (TRIPOD) were adopted in this research to develop the prediction model. Patient or Public Contribution: This research was based on a secondary analysis of patients’ Electronic Health Records. The dataset was de-identified and patient identifiers were removed before processing and modeling.