Modeling and Simulation of Dissemination of Cultivated Land Protection Policies in China

Abstract

Cultivated land protection is the top priority of the national economy in China and the livelihood of people. Cultivated land protection policies (CLPP) play an important role in the protection of cultivated land. However, the process of dissemination of CLPP on social networks of farmers has problems, such as distortion of policy content, single dissemination channels, low level of farmers’ knowledge, and low dissemination efficiency. For revealing the characteristics of the dissemination of CLPP in the farmers’ social networks (FSN), this study combines the Suspected–Exposed–Infected–Recovered–Suspected (SEIRS) epidemic model to construct a model of CLPP dissemination suitable for FSN. In addition, a numerical simulation of the dissemination process of CLPP is conducted on the FSN, and the influence of the structural characteristics of the FSN and different model parameters on the dissemination of CLPP is analyzed. Results show that (1) the dissemination rate between farmers in FSN has a significant impact on the scale and speed of CLPP. A greater initial dissemination rate corresponds to faster speed and larger scale of CLPP dissemination. (2) A greater node degree in FSN means stronger dissemination ability for CLPP. Therefore, identifying structural holes (opinion leaders) in FSN can effectively promote the dissemination of CLPP. (3) The SEIRS model can dynamically describe the evolution law of CLPP dissemination process over time through the four states of farmer nodes of suspected, exposed, infected, and recovered. Numerical simulation results show that the immune degradation rate is proportional to CLPP. However, the direct immunization rate is inversely proportional. The increase in immune degradation rate can reduce the number of recovered farmers and improve the efficiency of CLPP dissemination. On the basis of the abovementioned conclusions, this study draws policy recommendations to increase the scale and speed of CLPP dissemination in China.