Does Economic Growth Lead to an Increase in Cultivated Land Pressure? Evidence from China

Abstract

With economic growth, people’s living standards improve, and more cultivated land is needed to meet food demand. Meanwhile, the economic growth and urban expansion in China since 1978 has led to the loss of considerable amounts of cultivated land. Thus, the contradiction between “economic growth” and “food security” becomes increasingly prominent. Studying the impact of economic growth on cultivated land population support pressure is the basis for easing this problem. This study uses the cultivated land pressure index to represent cultivated land population support pressure, and explores the relationship between economic growth and cultivated land pressure based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017. The feasibility generalized least squares estimation and the fixed effect model based on Driscoll and Kraay standard errors are used. The results show that: (1) the impact of economic growth on cultivated land pressure is an N-shaped or U-shaped curve; and (2) there are regional differences in the impact of economic growth on cultivated land pressure. The cultivated land pressure in economically developed regions and main grain production regions responds slowly to the impact of economic growth. Therefore, some policy recommendations are put forward, such as paying attention to cultivated land protection and controlling disorderly urban expansion.