Back-Analysis of Slope GNSS Displacements Using Geographically Weighted Regression and Least Squares Algorithms

Abstract

Numerical simulation is a powerful technique for slope stability assessment and landslide hazard investigation. However, the physicomechanical parameters of the simulation results are susceptible to uncertainty. Displacement back-analysis is considered an effective method for the prediction of the geomechanical parameters of numerical models; therefore, it can be used to deal with the parameter uncertainty problem. In this study, to improve the interpretability of the back-analysis model, an analytical function relationship between slope displacements and physicomechanical parameters was established using geographically weighted regression. By combining the least-squares and linear-algebra algorithms, a displacement back-analysis method based on geographically weighted regression (DBA-GWR) was developed; in particular, the multi-objective displacement back-analysis was represented as an analytical problem. The developed method was subsequently used for a slope of the Guiwu Expressway in Guangxi, China. Simulation experiments and GNSS real-data experiments demonstrated that the GWR could achieve high-precision deformation modelling in the spatial domain with model-fitting precision in the order of mm. Compared with state-of-the-art methods, the precision of the simulated displacement with the proposed method was significantly improved, and equivalent physicomechanical parameters with higher accuracy were obtained. Based on the corrected numerical model, the most severely deformed profiles were forward-analysed, and the simulated deformation and distribution patterns were found to be in good agreement with the field investigation results. This approach is significant for the determination of geomechanical parameters and the accurate assessment of slope safety using monitoring data.