Strategies to Ensure Fuel Security in Brazil Considering a Forecast of Ethanol Production

Abstract

Ethanol production in Brazil started in the early 1930s due to laws created by the Brazilian government. However, ethanol production only increased significantly with the National Program of Ethanol implementation in 1975. This program was another action taken by the Brazilian government aiming to provide conditions for the development of the ethanol industry in the country. With the program, it was possible to achieve significant progress; however, it finished in the mid-1980s. Currently, ethanol is produced on a large scale by more than 300 sugarcane mills all over the country. In 2016, the Brazilian government provided another incentive for ethanol production by creating the RenovaBio Program, which aimed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Besides the environmental aspect, Brazil’s ethanol industry needs to develop to supply future biofuel demand. According to the forecast provided in this paper, and considering technical, economic, and environmental aspects regarding the Brazilian ethanol industry, the current and only feedstock used is likely to be insufficient. Thus, the ethanol produced from corn would be an attractive secondary feedstock to complement sugarcane ethanol as the primary feedstock.