Study on Landslide Susceptibility Based on Multi-Model Coupling: A Case Study of Sichuan Province, China

Abstract

Landslides are among the most prevalent geological hazards and are characterized by their high frequency, significant destructive potential, and considerable incident rate. Annually, these events lead to substantial casualties and property losses. Thus, conducting landslide susceptibility assessments in the regions vulnerable to such hazards has become crucial. In recent years, the coupling of traditional statistical methods with machine learning techniques has shown significant advantages in assessing landslide risk. This study focused on Sichuan Province, China, a region characterized by its vast area and diverse climatic and geological conditions. We selected 13 influencing factors for the analysis: elevation, slope, aspect, plan curve, profile curve, valley depth, precipitation, the stream power index (SPI), the topographic wetness index (TWI), the topographic position index (TPI), surface roughness, fractional vegetation cover (FVC), and slope height. This study incorporated the certainty factor method (CF), the information value method (IV), and their coupling with the decision tree C5.0 model (DT) and a logistic regression model (LR) as follows: IV-LR, IV-DT, CF-LR, and CF-DT. The results, validated by an ROC curve analysis, demonstrate that the evaluation accuracy of all six models exceeded 0.750 (AUC > 0.750). The IV-LR model exhibited the highest accuracy, with an AUC of 0.848. When comparing the accuracy among the models, it is evident that the coupling models outperformed the individual statistical models. Based on the results of the six models, a landslide susceptibility map was generated, categorized into five levels. High and very high landslide risk zones are mainly concentrated in the eastern and southeastern regions, covering nearly half of Sichuan Province. Medium-risk areas form linear distributions from northeast to southwest, occupying a smaller proportion of the area. Extremely low- and low-risk zones are predominantly located in the western and northwestern regions. The density of the landslide points increases with higher risk levels across the regions. This further validates the suitability of this research methodology for landslide susceptibility studies on a large scale. Consequently, this methodology can provide crucial insights for landslide prevention and mitigation efforts in this region.