Adaptive Forest Fire Spread Simulation Algorithm Based on Cellular Automata

Abstract

The popular simulation process that uses traditional cellular automata with a fixed time step to simulate forest fire spread may be limited in its ability to reflect the characteristics of actual fire development. This study combines cellular automata with an existing forest fire model to construct an improved forest fire spread model, which calculates a speed change rate index based on the meteorological factors that affect the spread of forest fires and the actual environment of the current location of the spread. The proposed model can adaptively adjust the time step of cellular automata through the speed change rate index, simulating forest fire spread more in line with the actual fire development trends while ensuring accuracy. When used to analyze a forest fire that occurred in Mianning County, Liangshan Prefecture, Sichuan Province in 2020, our model exhibited simulation accuracy of 96.9%, and kappa coefficient of 0.6214. The simulated fire situation adapted well to the complex and dynamic fire environment, accurately depicting the detailed fire situation. The algorithm can be used to simulate and predict the spread of forest fires, ensuring the accuracy of spread simulation and helping decision makers formulate reasonable plans.