The Distribution and Prediction of Summer Near-Surface Water Temperatures in Lakes of the Coterminous United States and Southern Canada

Abstract

The goals of the study were: (i) To describe the distribution of summer near-surface water temperatures in lakes of the coterminous United States and southern Canada (ii) to determine the geographic, meteorological and limnological factors related to summer water temperatures and (iii) to develop and test predictive models for summer near-surface water temperatures. We used data from the United States National Lakes Assessments of 2007 and 2012 as well as data collected from several different studies of Canadian lakes. Using multiple regressions, we quantified the general observations that summer water temperatures decreased when going from south to north, from east to west, and from lower elevations to higher elevations. Our empirical model using 8-day average air temperatures, latitude, longitude, elevations and month was able to predict water temperatures in individual lakes on individual summer days with a standard deviation of 1.7 °C for United States lakes and 2.3 °C for lakes in the southern regions of Canada.