A Meteorological Drought Migration Model for Assessing the Spatiotemporal Paths of Drought in the Choushui River Alluvial Fan, Taiwan

Abstract

Understanding drought evolution and its driving factors is crucial for effective water resource management and forecasting. This study enhances the analysis of drought probability by constructing bivariate distributions, providing a more realistic perspective than single-characteristic approaches. Additionally, a meteorological drought migration model is established to explore spatiotemporal paths and related characteristics of major drought events in the Choushui River alluvial fan. The results reveal a significant increase in the probability of southward-moving drought events after 1981. Before 1981, drought paths were diverse, while after 1981, these paths became remarkably similar, following a trajectory from north to south. This is primarily attributed to the higher rainfall in the northern region of the Choushui River alluvial fan from February to April, leading to a consistent southward movement of drought centroids. This study proposes that climate change is a primary factor influencing changes in the spatiotemporal paths of drought. It implies that changes in rainfall patterns and climate conditions can be discerned through the meteorological drought migration model. As a result, it provides the potential for simplifying drought-monitoring methods. These research findings provide further insight into the dynamic process of drought in the Choushui River alluvial fan and serve as valuable references for future water resource management.