A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of the Frequency of Droughts in Mexico’s Forest Ecosystems

Abstract

Droughts can affect forest ecosystems and lead to soil degradation, biodiversity loss, and desertification. Not all regions of Mexico are affected in the same way, as some areas are naturally more prone to drought due to their geographical location. Therefore, the objective of this work was to carry out a spatio-temporal analysis of the occurrence of droughts (severe and extreme) in Mexican forest systems, covering the period 2000–2021, and to study the area covered by these events in Mexican forest systems. This analysis was divided into three stages: the classification of land use and vegetation, spatial mapping and the classification of drought intensity, and an analysis of drought frequency and probability in forest systems. The results show that more than 46% of Mexico’s forest area experienced severe and extreme droughts during the 21-year period studied. Broadleaved forests were most affected by severe and extreme droughts, with a frequency of 6 years. The increasing frequency of droughts poses a major challenge to the resilience of forest ecosystems in Mexico, highlighting the need to implement climate change adaptation and forest management measures to protect the country’s biodiversity and natural resources.