The Exceptionally Cold January of 2017 over the Balkan Peninsula: A Climatological and Synoptic Analysis

Abstract

An exceptionally cold episode occurred in January 2017 over the Balkan Peninsula. Analysis of historical records showed that it was one of the coldest extreme episodes. Even though the low temperatures of January 2017 did not break previous low records for all stations, the long duration was quite extreme, resulting in strong socioeconomic impacts in the region of interest. The 10-year to 100-year return values of minimum temperatures were calculated based on block maxima method and the maximum likelihood estimates. The estimated return periods of the absolute minimum temperature are approximately 15 or 20 years for almost all stations. For only one station, the absolute minimum temperature of January 2017 might happen once in every 300 years according to the return level results. Moreover, the extreme cold episode over the Balkans during the period of 5 January 2017 to 12 January 2017 was associated with a significant outbreak of arctic air masses into eastern–central Europe and the Balkans and a cutoff low at the level of 500 hPa over the region.